What Is the Federal Conviction Rate

What Is the Federal Conviction Rate

Your attorney just told you the federal conviction rate. Ninety-nine percent. Maybe ninety-three percent. Either way, you’re terrified because those numbers say you’re almost certain to be convicted. You’re charged federally – wire fraud, drug trafficking, whatever the indictment alleges – and prosecutors are using that statistic as leverage: “The federal conviction rate is 99%, you should take our plea offer now before we add more charges.” You don’t understand whether that number means the government only charges guilty people or whether the system is rigged against defendants. You’ve heard 98% of federal cases end in plea deals. You’re wondering if everyone who goes to trial loses, why fight at all? The Sixth Amendment guarantees trial by jury – but when conviction rates approach 99%, does that right mean anything, or is it just a formality before inevitable imprisonment? In fiscal year 2022, federal courts convicted 99.6% of criminal defendants. That’s 71,664 convictions out of 71,954 total defendants. Sounds hopeless. But that 99.6% includes everyone who pled guilty – and 89.5% of all federal defendants plead guilty before trial. Only 1,669 defendants actually went to trial in 2022. Of those who went to trial, 1,379 were convicted and 290 were acquitted. That’s an 83% conviction rate at trial, 17% acquittal rate. Still terrible odds, but not 99% hopeless. When prosecutors tell you “federal conviction rate is 99%, you have no chance” – they’re counting guilty pleas as convictions. They’re using statistics as a weapon. The 99% figure doesn’t predict what happens if YOU go to trial. It measures what happens when you include people who surrendered before fighting. Your actual odds if you go to trial: 17% chance of acquittal. Worse than a coin flip but not the statistical impossibility the 99% number implies.

Thanks for visiting Spodek Law Group – a second-generation law firm managed by Todd Spodek, who has defended federal clients for many, many years. We’ve represented defendants who took plea deals because the evidence was overwhelming and defendants who went to trial because they were innocent. We’ve been part of that 17% trial acquittal rate. We’ve also seen the 99% statistic wielded as a weapon – prosecutors threatening defendants with numbers designed to eliminate the possibility of trial before discovery even starts.

Why 98% Plead Guilty

98% of federal convictions result from guilty pleas, not trials. Only 2% of federal defendants exercise their Sixth Amendment right to trial. Why? Because the trial penalty makes going to trial financially, emotionally, and legally catastrophic. Average sentence after trial is three times higher than after pleading guilty for the same offense. The National Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers documented this: sentences at trial are 64% longer than sentences from guilty pleas. Sometimes the difference is seven to nine additional years – not because the conduct was worse, but because you exercised your constitutional right to trial. The trial penalty works through charge bargaining, sentencing stipulations, cooperation credit, and acceptance of responsibility reductions. Plead guilty early, you get a two or three level reduction in the sentencing guidelines – months or years off your sentence. Cooperate with prosecutors, they file a 5K1.1 motion for downward departure. Agree to fewer counts, they dismiss the others. Go to trial and you get none of that. You’re convicted on all counts. No cooperation credit. No acceptance reduction. When your attorney tells you the plea offer is three years but the trial risk is nine years – that’s not a prediction based on different evidence. That’s the trial penalty. The system punishes you for refusing to plead guilty. That’s why 98% plead guilty. Not because 98% are actually guilty and accept responsibility. Because the financial and temporal cost of exercising your constitutional right to trial is too high. You’re not choosing between pleading guilty and going to trial. You’re choosing between certain punishment now or risking catastrophic punishment later.

The 99% federal conviction rate reflects two things: selective prosecution and coerced pleas. Federal prosecutors only charge cases with overwhelming evidence. They don’t file charges based on police reports like state prosecutors often do. Federal investigations last months or years. FBI, DEA, IRS, ATF – federal agencies spend years gathering evidence before prosecutors even see the case. By the time you’re indicted, prosecutors believe they have enough evidence to win at trial. The high conviction rate doesn’t mean everyone charged is guilty. It means the government only charges cases where they’re confident of victory. But selective prosecution doesn’t explain the 99% rate by itself. The trial penalty does. Even in cases with strong evidence, some defendants are innocent, some have defenses, some could win at trial. In a functioning adversarial system, those defendants would go to trial and some would win. But the trial penalty eliminates that possibility. When pleading guilty means three years and trial means nine years, even innocent defendants plead guilty. The conviction rate is high because the system is designed to eliminate trials through the threat of drastically harsher punishment for those who refuse to surrender. What the conviction rate doesn’t mean: it doesn’t predict YOUR outcome. In fiscal 2022, 8.2% of federal cases were dismissed. That’s about one in twelve. Not every indictment leads to conviction. Evidence gets suppressed because of illegal searches. Witnesses fall apart under cross-examination. Constitutional violations get discovered during litigation. Prosecutors realize they overcharged. Your case might be part of the 8.2% that gets dismissed. The conviction rate is an aggregate statistic – it doesn’t determine whether YOUR case has defenses the statistics don’t capture. If you go to trial, the type of trial matters. Bench trials – where a judge decides guilt instead of a jury – have a 38% acquittal rate. Jury trials have a 14% acquittal rate. Judges acquit more often than juries, probably because judges are less swayed by emotional appeals and more focused on legal sufficiency of evidence. Prosecutors know this. That’s why they fight bench trial requests.

You’re trying to decide whether to plead guilty or go to trial. The statistics terrify you. If you plead guilty, you join the 89.5% who take plea deals. You accept whatever sentence the plea agreement offers. You waive appeal rights, waive trial rights. If you go to trial, you have an 83% chance of conviction, 17% chance of acquittal. If convicted at trial, your sentence will be three times higher than the plea offer – maybe more. The trial penalty can add seven to nine years. But you force the government to prove guilt beyond reasonable doubt. You preserve appeal rights if convicted. Your case might be the 17%. The Sixth Amendment guarantees trial by jury. When exercising that right means facing a sentence three to ten times higher, the guarantee becomes a threat.

Todd Spodek has represented federal defendants throughout his career – SDNY, EDNY, district courts nationwide. Call 212-300-5196.