Should I Take My PPP Fraud Case to Trial?

You are reading this at night. Probably late. The question has been circling in your head for days now, maybe weeks. Your lawyer said something about a plea offer and you did not like what you heard. The number sounded too high. The years sounded too long. Now you are wondering if trial is the answer. If fighting is the way out.

At Spodek Law Group, we have represented hundreds of clients facing federal charges, including PPP fraud cases that carry serious prison time. Our mission is not to tell you what you want to hear. Our mission is to tell you what you need to know so you can make the decision that actually serves your life, your family, and your future.

Here is the truth that nobody wants to say out loud: the "choice" between trial and plea is not really a choice at all. The federal system has been designed, very carefully, to make trial financially and mathematically suicidal for most defendants. Understanding this is the first step toward making a real decision instead of an emotional one.

The Evidence Problem You Cannot Outrun

The bank records. Those are what keep prosecutors up at night celebrating. Not because there evil or out to get you specificaly. Not because they have some vendetta against small business owners who made mistakes during the chaos of a pandemic. Because PPP fraud leaves a paper trail that is almost impossible to explain away at trial. The evidence exists in multiple government databases and financial institutions, and it all points in one direction.

Think about what the government has. They have the application you submitted to the Small Business Administration. They have your signature attesting that everything was true. They have the bank records showing exactly were the money went after it hit your account. They have the spending patterns that show wheather the money was used for payroll or for personal expenses like cars and watches. And in many cases, they have text messages or emails were you discussed the loan with others.

Look, nobody wants to say this out loud. But heres the thing about PPP fraud cases that makes them diffrent from other federal crimes. The evidence is not circumstantial. Its not about what you meant to do or what you were thinking. Its about documents. Documents you created. Documents you signed. Documents that show exactly what happend to every dollar of that money after you recieved it.

You signed the application. Thats it. Thats the governments case.

Every dollar has a destination. The government knows were yours went. They have subpoenaed your bank, your credit card companies, your car dealerships. They know about the Rolex watches. They know about the luxury cars. They know about the vacations to Miami and Vegas. They know about the renovations to your house.

And heres what your lawyer wont tell you directly becuase its uncomfortable: if you go to trial, all of this comes out in front of a jury. The photos of your new car. The receipts from your trips. The text messages bragging about free money. A jury that has zero sympathy for someone who took pandemic relief money and spent it on luxury goods while other businesses were closing there doors forever. Juries in 2025 have absolutly no patience for PPP fraud defendants.

Heres the reality that most defendants refuse to accept: the documentary evidence in PPP cases is almost always overwhelming. These are cases were your own documents tell the story the government wants to tell.

What a 93% Conviction Rate Actualy Means For You

93%. Read that number again. Let it sink in.

Thats the federal conviction rate. Some sources say 97%. Either way, its not 50/50 like in the movies were the hero wins. Its not 80/20 were you have a fighting chance. The government does not bring cases they might loose. If they charged you, they beleive they already have you.

OK so heres the thing nobody likes to admit. Every defendant believes there case is different. Every defendant thinks the jury will see the truth that the prosecutors are hiding. Every defendant thinks the prosecutor is overreaching or the evidence is weaker then it looks.

You probly think that too. Your not alone. But that belief is not evidence. That belief is hope. And hope is not a trial strategy.

Lets do the math together. If 93 out of 100 defendants are convicted, that means only 7 walk free. Seven people out of a hundred. Now ask yourself: what makes you believe you are in the 7? What makes your case so different that you will succeed were 93 others failed?

You probly are not that person. Nobody thinks they are going to be the one who loses. Everyone thinks there situation is unique, that there circumstances are diffrent, that the jury will understand there side of the story.

I am not saying this to be cruel or to crush your spirit. I am saying this becuase prosecutors are counting on you to believe you are special. They are counting on your pride to override your math. They are counting on you to go to trial so they can convict you and sentance you to three times what the plea offer was.

Its worse odds then buying a lottery ticket. Actualy, I cannot think of anything with worse odds that people still regularly choose to do.

The Trial Penalty Nobody Warned You About

The trial penalty. Thats what they call it when lawyers talk amongst themselves. Its not an official term. Its not written in any statute. But every federal practitioner knows it exists, and its absolutly devastating.

Heres the part that makes defense attorneys uncomfortable to explain. When you plead guilty, you get what they call "acceptance of responsibility." Thats a 2-3 level reduction in your sentencing guidelines. It sounds technical but it can be the diffrence between 2 years and 5 years. The diffrence between seeing your kids grow up and missing there high school graduation.

But when you go to trial and loose, which happens 93% of the time, you dont just miss out on that reduction. The judge sees you as someone who wasted everyones time. Someone who made the government prove what you already knew was true. Someone who showed absolutly no remorse.

18 months with a plea. 60 months after trial. Same conduct. Same evidence. The only diffrence is exercising your constitutional right.

Let that sink in. The system punishes you for using it.

The median plea sentence for PPP fraud is 18-24 months. The median trial sentence is 5-10 years. Those are not typos. Those are not outliers. Thats the system working exactly as designed. It was designed specificaly to make trial mathematicaly irrational. It was designed to make you plead guilty even if you believe your innocent.

Heres were it gets even darker. If your plea offer is 18 months and trial maximum is 60 months, thats a trial penalty of over 200%. If your plea offer is 3 years and trial sentence is 10 years, thats over 300%. Prosecutors know these numbers intimatly. They study them. They set the plea offer at exactly the level were trial becomes mathematical suicide.

This is why experienced federal defense attorneys spend more time negotiating pleas then preparing for trials. The system is designed to make negotiation the only rational path for most defendants. Understanding this reality is the first step toward making a decision that serves your actual interests rather then your emotional need to fight.

Real Defendants Who Made The Wrong Choice

Stephanie Hockridge was a television news anchor in Arizona. Her husband Nathan Reis was one of the founders of Blueacorn, a company that processed PPP loan applications during the pandemic. When the feds came knocking with charges of conspiracy to commit wire fraud, they each made a different choice.

Nathan Reis took the plea. He pleaded guilty.

Stephanie Hockridge decided she would fight. She would go to trial. She would prove her innocence.

Same case. Same evidence. Same conduct. Same co-defendants. They were married to each other, charged together in one of the largest PPP fraud schemes prosecuted in 2024-2025. The Blueacorn case involved processing fraudulent PPP applications worth tens of millions of dollars.

Nathan Reis pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit wire fraud. He accepted responsibility. He cooperated with the government. He is serving his time right now. He will be out in a reasonable timeframe. He will see his family again.

Stephanie Hockridge decided to fight at trial. In June 2025, a federal jury in Fort Worth Texas convicted her on the same charge her husband pleaded to. In November 2025, she was sentenced to 10 years in federal prison. She was also ordered to pay $63 million in restitution jointly with her co-defendants.

She is sitting in federal prison right now. For 10 years. Her husband is serving less then half that amount.

Think about that. Same case. Same evidence. Same conduct. Same marriage. One took the plea, one went to trial becuase she wanted to fight. The diffrence between them is years and years of imprisonment.

And theres another defendant whose story I know well. His lawyer offered him a plea deal for 7 years in federal prison. He thought the government was bluffing. He thought the jury would see through the prosecution theory. He thought he was in the 7%.

A defendant rejected a 7-year plea offer, went to trial, lost badly, and recieved 15 years in federal prison. Same conduct. Same evidence. The only diffrence was exercising his constitutional right to trial.

7 years became 15 years. Thats the trial penalty in action. Thats what the "choice" to go to trial actualy costs when you loose.

Its like watching two people jump from the same building, except one has a parachute and one decided they didnt need one because they believed they could fly...

When Trial Actualy Makes Sense

But wait. Sometimes trial IS the right choice. I am not telling everyone to plead guilty. That would be wrong.

There are defendants who should fight there cases. There are rare cases were trial is not irrational. There are situations were the plea offer is so incredibly harsh that trial literally cannot make it worse. But you need to know wheather you actualy fit these narrow criteria or wheather your just hoping you do.

Three conditions. All three must be true. If any one is missing, trial is probly irrational.

First, the governments evidence has genuine gaps. Not small gaps. Real gaps. Missing witnesses they need but dont have. Broken chain of custody. Contradictory statements from key prosecution witnesses. If the government has your signature on the PPP application and bank records showing you spent the money on luxury items, you do not have evidence gaps.

Second, the plea offer is already so harsh that trial cannot make it meaningfully worse. If your plea offer is 15 years and trial maximum is 20, the additional 5 years might be worth the gamble. If your plea offer is 18 months and trial maximum is 10 years, you have absolutly everything to loose.

Third, you have a specific factual defense, not just a general denial. "I didnt do it" is not a factual defense. "My employee submitted the application without my knowledge and heres the evidence proving that" is a factual defense. "I misunderstood the rules" is not a defense at all under the law.

Thats it. Thats the list. Three conditions. All three must be met.

But heres what separates defendants who SHOULD fight from those who just WANT to fight: evidence strength and plea delta. If the government has your signature on the application and has tracked your spending on luxury goods, you are not in the 7%. Know which category you actualy fall into.

How We Turn Terrible Plea Offers Into Survivable Sentences

The first plea offer is never the final plea offer. Its a test. The government wants to see how hard you will fight. At Spodek Law Group, we understand deeply that plea negotiation is were the real value is created for most PPP fraud defendants.

OK so heres were most attorneys mess this up. They treat the plea offer like its carved in stone. They tell you the number and wait for your answer. But that is not how federal plea negotiation actualy works.

Here is what Todd Spodek does differently. We start by aggressively attacking the loss calculation. The governments loss number drives absolutly everything in federal sentencing. If they say you stole $500,000 and we can prove the real number is $200,000, your guidelines drop dramaticaly. Every dollar matters.

Then we build a mitigation package. Thats the story of who you are beyond this charge. Your family circumstances. Your community contributions. Your mental health factors. Your cooperation. Every piece of evidence that shows the judge you are a human being, not just a number.

Acceptance of responsibility gets you 2-3 levels off the guidelines. That can be the diffrence between 7 years and 10 years. But you only get that credit if you plead guilty in a timely manner. Wait too long and you loose it forever.

And heres something that changes absolutly everything in multi-defendant cases: if co-defendants exist, someone will flip first. The first cooperator gets the best deal. The government gives the most substantial assistance credit to whoever comes forward first. The question is wheather that first cooperator will be you or wheather you will be the person they flip on.

The first offer is a test. Make the government work for there conviction. But know the real fight happens in the negotiation room, not the court room. Thats were sentences get reduced. Thats were years get shaved off. Thats were families get saved.

At Spodek Law Group, this is what we do every single day for clients facing PPP fraud charges. We turn terrible situations into survivable outcomes through aggressive, strategic negotiation with federal prosecutors who respect the work we do.

Making The Decision That Keeps Your Family Whole

Your kids do not care about your legal record. They care wheather you are there for there high school graduation. Wheather you walk them down the aisle. Wheather you meet there children. Every day you spend in prison is a day you cannot get back.

This is what I wish someone had told me years ago when Todd Spodek started this work. The question is not "Am I innocent?" The question is "Will I be there when my daughter graduates?"

Let me show you what the different paths look like over five years.

Path one: You take the plea. You plead guilty in open court. It is humiliating. It is shameful. You feel like a criminal becuase the court just said you are one. You serve 18-24 months at a low security facility. You come home. Your wife is waiting. Your kids have grown a little but they still know you. You start rebuilding.

Path two: You go to trial becuase you want to fight. You loose like 93% of defendants do. The jury convicts you on all counts. You are remanded to custody immediately. Sentencing is scheduled for 90 days out. The pre-sentence report calculates your guidelines without acceptance of responsibility. The judge gives you 10 years. Your kids visit you at first. Then less. Then they have there own lives. Your wife files for divorce in year 3. When you finaly come home, you are a stranger to everyone you loved.

Both paths start with the same conduct. Same evidence. Same charges. The only diffrence is the decision you make in the next few weeks.

The question is not Am I innocent. The question is Will I be there when my daughter graduates.

At Spodek Law Group, we help clients make this decision with clear eyes. Not with hope. Not with pride. With math. With strategy. With an understanding of what the system is designed to do and how to navigate it in a way that actualy serves your real life.

212-300-5196. Thats the number. Call it today. The longer you wait, the fewer options you have. The first cooperator gets the best deal. Dont let that be someone else.

Your future is not about winning or loosing in a federal court room. Its about the decisions you make right now, tonight, while your reading this article and thinking about what comes next. The choice you make in the next few weeks will determine the next decade of your life. Make it wisely. Make it with clear eyes. Make it with the help of attorneys who understand how this system actualy works.