Welcome to Spodek Law Group. Our goal is to give you the reality of federal sentencing - not the sanitized version government websites present, not the academic fiction law schools teach, but the actual truth about what happens when you face the federal sentencing table.
Most people searching for information about the federal sentencing table are in crisis. Someone just told you numbers - offense level 18, criminal history category II, 27 to 33 months - and you have no idea what it means for your life. You need to understand this table. But understanding how to READ the table is not the same as understanding how the table WORKS. That is what we are going to give you.
The federal sentencing table looks like an objective mathematical formula. Two numbers intersect, you get a range, judge picks a number within that range. Clean. Scientific. Fair. This is a lie. The table is theater. By the time you see those numbers, the prosecutor has already determined your fate through decisions made weeks or months earlier. The negotiation you think is happening is not a negotiation at all. It is you choosing between accepting the result they already calculated, or gambling on trial where you will face sentences three to eight times longer if you lose.
How the Federal Sentencing Table Actually Works
The federal sentencing table is a grid with 43 offense levels on one axis and 6 criminal history categories on the other. Where those two numbers intersect, you find a sentencing range in months. Offense level 1 with criminal history category I gives you 0 to 6 months. Offense level 43 with criminal history category VI gives you life.
The table divides into four zones. Zone A covers the lowest guideline ranges and typically allows for probation only. Zone B allows a split sentence with some imprisonment and some supervised release. Zone C requires at least half the minimum guideline range to be served in prison. Zone D requires straight imprisonment with no probation option. Understanding which zone you fall into matters because it determines what kind of sentence is even legally available.
Every federal crime starts with a base offense level. Bank robbery starts at level 20. Wire fraud starts at level 7. Drug trafficking varies based on drug type and quantity. From that base, adjustments get added or subtracted. Played a leadership role? Add 2 to 4 levels. Obstructed justice? Add 2 levels. Accepted responsibility by pleading guilty early? Subtract 2 or 3 levels.
Heres the thing most articles wont tell you. Those adjustments are not neutral facts discovered at sentencing. The prosecutor chooses which facts to include in the charging documents. The prosecutor decides whether to seek enhancements. The prosecutor determines what relevant conduct to include - behavior you were never charged with but can still increase your offense level.
What looks like a calculator is actualy a weapon. The prosecutor enters the numbers they want, and the table outputs the sentence they have already decided you should get.
The Number That Controls Your Fate: Offense Levels Explained
Your offense level is everything. Moving up just two levels can add years to your sentence. At criminal history category I, offense level 20 gives you 33 to 41 months. Offense level 22 gives you 41 to 51 months. Offense level 24 gives you 51 to 63 months. Two levels equals a year or more.
The government determines your offense level long before your sentencing hearing. Heres were people get confused. They think sentencing is were the action happens. They think their lawyer will argue at the hearing, the judge will listen, and somehow the numbers will change. In reality, 90% of the outcome was determined during plea negotiations, when prosecutors decided what charges to file and what facts to include.
As Todd Spodek explains to clients facing federal charges, understanding this timeline changes everything about how you approach your case. The time to fight the offense level is before you plead guilty. Not after. Once you have signed a plea agreement, your options shrink dramaticly.
Consider what happens with fraud cases. Wire fraud has a base offense level of 7. But theres a loss table that adds levels based on the amount of money involved. More then $6,500 adds 2 levels. More then $15,000 adds 4 levels. More then $250,000 adds 12 levels. More then $1,000,000 adds 16 levels. A fraud case involving a million dollars dosent start at level 7. It starts at level 23.
Now add enhancements. Used sophisticated means? Add 2 levels. Ten or more victims? Add 2 levels. Defendant was in a position of trust? Add 2 levels. Suddenly your offense level is 29 and your looking at 87 to 108 months - over 7 years - even with no criminal history.
The enhancement cascade is how prosecutors manufacture sentences. They select facts that trigger enhancements. They include relevant conduct that pushes amounts higher. They argue for role enhancements. Each addition seems small - just two levels here, two levels there. But the compound effect is devastating.
The prosecutor controlled every one of those additions. The table just did the math.
Criminal History Categories: The Past That Haunts You
The other axis of the table is your criminal history category. This ranges from I to VI. Category I means minimal or no prior criminal history. Category VI means extensive prior convictions. The higher your category, the higher your guideline range - even for the exact same offense level.
Criminal history points accumulate based on your prior convictions. Three points for each prior sentence exceeding one year and one month. Two points for each prior sentence of at least sixty days. One point for each prior sentence of less than sixty days. Additional points for committing the offense while on probation, parole, or supervised release.
What most people dont realize is that old convictions can still count. Convictions more than fifteen years old might be excluded, but many convictions from a decade ago still add points. And the calculation is technical - your attorney needs to scrutinize every prior conviction to ensure points are assigned correctly.
Some defendants discover at sentencing that convictions they thought were minor - a misdemeanor from years ago - added points they didnt expect. The difference between criminal history category I and category II can mean months of additional imprisonment. The difference between category III and category IV can mean years.
Why 97% Plead Guilty: The Trial Penalty Nobody Explains
OK so heres the part nobody talks about when they explain the sentencing table. In fiscal year 2024, 97% of federal defendants plead guilty. Read that again. Ninety-seven percent. Only 2 to 3 percent of cases go to trial.
This is not because 97% of defendants are guilty. It is because the system makes fighting impossible.
The National Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers has documented what they call the trial penalty. Defendants who go to trial and lose recieve sentences 3 to 8 times longer then defendants who plead guilty to the same crime. Sometimes it is 10 times longer. This is not a bug in the system. It is a feature.
Think about what this means. You are facing federal charges. You are innocent. You want to fight. Your lawyer shows you the plea offer: 36 months. Then she shows you the post-trial sentence if you lose: 240 months. Twenty years. You are looking at the difference between being home in 3 years and being home when your kids have graduated college, gotten married, had their own kids.
Heres the kicker. The National Registry of Exonerations has documented over 3,200 exonerations. Twenty-five percent of them - one in four - involved false guilty pleas. People who didnt commit the crime plead guilty anyway. Becuase the trial penalty made innocence too expensive.
At Spodek Law Group, we have seen this pattern destroy lives. Someone beleives in their innocence, demands a trial, and watches their entire future evaporate when the jury gets it wrong. The sentencing table is not applied differently to innocent defendants. The math is the same wheather you actually did it or not.
This is why understanding the table is not enough. You have to understand the system the table serves.
The Pre-Sentence Report: The Document That Decides Everything
There is a document most defendants never think about until it is too late. The Pre-Sentence Investigation Report, or PSR. This document, written by a probation officer, calculates your guideline range. It determines your offense level. It tallies your criminal history points. It applies enhancements and reductions.
Your defense attorney might not see this document untill 35 days before sentencing. Sometimes less. And heres the thing - if there are errors in the PSR, you have limited time to object. Facts you dont challenge become facts the judge accepts.
The PSR includes something called relevant conduct. This is behavior that was not charged but can still effect your sentence. If you are charged with one drug transaction but the probation officer beleives you were involved in a larger conspiracy, that uncharged conduct can increase your offense level dramaticly.
Let that sink in. You are being sentenced for behavior you were never indicted for, never had a trial on, never had a chance to defend against with a jury. The probation officer makes a determination, writes it in the PSR, and unless you object effectivly, it becomes the basis for your sentence.
The PSR also includes personal history information - your education, employment, family circumstances, mental health, substance abuse history. This information becomes the basis for arguments about variance. A thorough defense attorney will ensure this section presents the most complete and sympathetic picture possible.
Todd Spodek has seen PSRs that added years to clients expected sentences. Facts they thought would not matter. Conduct they thought was seperate from their case. Enhancements they didnt anticipate. By the time they saw the PSR, it was basicly too late.
This is why federal defense begins the moment you know you are under investigation - not when you get indicted, not when you plead guilty, not when sentencing approaches.
What Advisory Really Means After Booker
In 2005, the Supreme Court decided United States v. Booker. The Court ruled that mandatory sentencing guidelines violated the Sixth Amendment. Guidelines became advisory rather then mandatory. Judges could now depart from the calculated range.
People hear this and think judges have total freedom. The reality is more complicated.
Heres were it gets interesting. Despite guidelines being advisory, approximately 51% of sentences still fall within the guideline range. Judges anchor to the table. They start with those numbers and work from there. Even when they depart, they explain the departure in relation to the guidelines.
Nearly 49% of sentences do fall outside the guideline range. Sounds promising, right? Look closer. The majority of downward departures are government-sponsored. Meaning the prosecutor agreed to them. The most common reason is substantial assistance - the defendant cooperated, helped prosecute others, and the government rewarded that cooperation with a 5K1.1 motion.
This creates a paradox. If you are genuinely innocent and have nothing to trade, you cannot cooperate your way to a lower sentence. But if you are guilty and have information about others, you can potentialy get a much lower sentence then an innocent person who went to trial.
See the problem? The system rewards guilt with information. It punishes innocence with nothing to offer.
Judges can and do grant variances based on individual circumstances. 18 U.S.C. Section 3553(a) lists factors judges must consider: the nature of the offense, the history of the defendant, the need for the sentence to reflect the seriousness of the offense, to provide deterrence, to protect the public. A skilled defense attorney can argue for a variance based on these factors.
But remember - your starting point is still the guideline range. The prosecutor still controlled the inputs. You are fighting from within the system they built.
How Defense Attorneys Actually Fight the Table
At Spodek Law Group, federal defense means fighting at every stage were the table can be influenced. Not just at sentencing. Everywere.
Before charges are filed, if you are under investigation, the time to act is now. What the prosecutor decides to charge determines your base offense level. What facts they include in the indictment determines your enhancements. This is were battles are won or lost.
During plea negotiations, this is were the real work happens. Negotiating which charges you plead to. Which facts the government will recommend to the probation officer. Whether the government will agree to certain offense level calculations. Whether they will file a motion for downward departure if you cooperate. Some plea agreements include stipulated guideline ranges - the government agrees to recommend a specific range, taking certain disputed factors off the table.
Reviewing the PSR. Every word matters. Challenge factual errors. Object to enhancements you did not actualy earn. Dispute the loss amount. Contest the drug quantity. Fight the relevant conduct the probation officer included. The objection process is critical - uncontested facts in the PSR become facts the judge relies on.
At sentencing. Present mitigation evidence. Show the judge who you are beyond the offense. Argue for a variance under 3553(a). Make the case that the guideline range overstates the seriousness of your conduct. Present character witnesses. Submit letters of support. Demonstrate rehabilitation efforts.
After sentencing. Preserve issues for appeal. File motions to reduce sentence when eligible under Rule 35 or compassionate release provisions. Monitor changes in the law that might affect your case.
The federal conviction rate is around 93%. The guilty plea rate is 97%. These numbers are intimidating. But within those numbers are people who got better outcomes becuase they had attorneys who understood were to fight.
What Happens When You Do Not Understand the Table
Picture this scenario. You are charged with a federal offense. You find an attorney. He quotes you a fee, says he will handle it, and tells you not to worry.
Months later, you are at sentencing. The judge reads a guideline range much higher then you expected. Your attorney looks surprised too. He did not review the PSR carefully. He did not object to the enhancements. He did not negotiate the offense level during the plea. He thought sentencing was were he would make his arguments.
Now you are facing years more then you prepared for. Your family is crying in the courtroom. You are trying to understand how this happened.
This is what happens when you treat the sentencing table like a formula instead of a battlefield.
The table has 258 possible cells. 43 offense levels multiplied by 6 criminal history categories. Small movements between cells mean years of your life. Level 24 category II is 57 to 71 months. Level 26 category II is 70 to 87 months. One enhancement, one contested fact, one unobjected PSR error - and you have lost another year.
The people who get the best outcomes are the people who understood the system earliest and fought it hardest.
Understanding What You Are Really Fighting
The federal sentencing system processes approximately 65,000 defendants annually. Each one faces the same table. Each one confronts the same calculations. But outcomes vary wildly based on representation quality and timing of defense engagement.
Studies show that defendants with experienced federal defense attorneys achieve better outcomes than those represented by attorneys unfamiliar with federal practice. The difference is not just knowledge of the law. It is understanding where in the process outcomes can actualy be influenced.
Many people make the mistake of hiring the attorney who handled their divorce or their business contract to handle their federal case. They assume a lawyer is a lawyer. This assumption costs years. Federal criminal defense is a specialization. The rules are different. The timeline is different. The consequences are exponentially worse.
The Call You Need to Make
The federal sentencing table is not your enemy. It is a tool. Like any tool, what matters is who is using it and how.
Right now, prosecutors are using it against you. They have selected charges to achieve offense levels they want. They have determined what facts to include. They have calculated where on the table they want you to land.
Your response cannot be passive. You cannot wait until sentencing to engage. You cannot assume your attorney will handle it. You have to understand the system, identify were you can influence it, and fight at every point were the outcome can change.
At Spodek Law Group, we have handled hundreds of federal cases. We have seen what happens when defense is proactive versus reactive. The differences are not marginal. They are measured in years.
The clock started when you learned you were under investigation. Every day that passes is a day the government builds their case, locks in their calculations, moves you toward a cell on that table.
Call us at 212-300-5196. The next 48 hours determine the next decade of your life.
